Cooling down for winter

When Canada Post worker Darren Byrne went out to do his route in Gander on Dec. 4, 2008, he found the weather pretty agreeable - enough so that Mr. Byrne decided he could wear shorts.

The chances of him doing the same a year later are looking less probable, assuming Environment Canada is on the spot with its predictions for the next two months.

According to the most recent seasonal forecast released by the national government agency, there is an 80 to 90 per cent probability of temperature being below average for Gander and the surrounding area over the next two months.

"So far here in October, that's what we've been seeing," said Herb Thoms, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada's Gander office. "For all of Newfoundland, there have been below normal temperatures."

For precipitation, indicators are less precise. Environment Canada has predicted a 20-30 per cent chance of above average precipitation, while normal and below average precipitation both sit in the 30-40 per cent range.

No matter the level of precipitation, the below normal temperatures could indicate a stronger possibility of ice and snow build-up. However, whether precipitation comes as snow or rain depends on a storm track.

"With Gander, if it goes to the east of us, usually it'll be snow, but if it goes to the west of us, it'll be snow changing to rain," said Mr. Thoms.

That said, with below normal temperatures this time of the year through to December, he said it would not be illogical to think more snow would come than rain.

This has already become apparent with the major snowfall experienced on Oct. 17. According to Environment Canada, 40 centimetres of snow fell on Gander, though Mr. Thoms is quick to add much of it melted before it hit the ground.

Still, the accumulation represented a record snowfall for October. The last time Gander received over 20 cm of snow was on Oct. 19, 1999.

This could also vary from month-to-month. For example, Mr. Thoms said conceivably November could be above normal temperature-wise, while December could be below normal, and averaging out the data with October included, it would be below normal.

"That could be determined by the storm tracks ... these things are very difficult to predict," said Mr. Thoms, who actually prefers to refer to "seasonal outlooks," rather than "seasonal forecasts."

The next seasonal outlook for November, December, and January is also looking to indicate below normal temperatures, he said.

A moderate El Nino is expected for the winter, and Mr. Thoms said a strong signal is typically required for it to have an impact on Newfoundland and Labrador.

However, when El Nino comes into play, the eastern half of the island would have below normal temperatures, so its presence fits in with the seasonal outlooks.