There’s no doubt some people vote guided by emotions. Little wonder, then, that a recent poll shows a surge in support for the federal NDP following the death of leader Jack Layton.
Canadians – the usual third-place party included – were surprised when the last election put the NDP in a solid second place in the last election to form the Opposition. But it doesn’t end there. A Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey released this week pegged support for the party at 33 per cent – tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals’ 21 per cent.
Region by region, the NDP polled high in Quebec, Ontario, the Atlantic provinces and B.C., with less support in the other western provinces.
Such a pattern has never happened. Then again, survey results are always a slice in time. In this case they also reflect people’s sympathy following Layton’s death, their genuine respect for him and likely the way he left this world – with a strong message advocating a more caring social fabric for Canada.
How those numbers will play out once the NDP select a new leader or in an election four years from now will be another story.
But, still, the numbers do tell a story of transition in voter preference. A few years ago, such a shift in favour of the NDP would have been unimaginable.
Also, decades ago, when many voters remained entrenched with a single party their entire lives – often influenced by family tradition – such a change would have been even less likely. The day of dyed-in-the-wool party supporters appears on the wane – and there’s nothing the matter with that, since parties can change direction and each election sees entirely new issues surface.
Again, the party’s strength “post-Jack” remains to be seen. Much will depend on the next leader. But if the NDP remains a force to be reckoned with the next election will be interesting, and the other major parties will have to work harder than they ever did in the past.
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